As for FCPO, strong buying late in the session closed market higher yesterday in an actively traded session. Buying followed news that Indonesian Finance Minister will sign a regulation for a USD50 per tonne levy on CPO exports. Market eroded gradually lower most of the session on bearish sentiment and absence of fresh factors. Rumours of about unchanged 1-15 April exports vs a month ago had little effect. Prices eroded from 1 higher to 33 lower in the morning and were mostly lower in the afternoon before recovering in the last hour.
Looks like the Indonesian export levy, which still needs the President's approval, will be the primary factor in the coming days. This may curb Indonesian exports and draw more demand to Malaysia, which is positive. However, increasing production in the coming months and record high South American soyabean crop are negative. Export demand will be closely followed in the coming weeks.
Technical view - prices held the 2100 support. However, indicators remain negative. Prices may turn sideways in a 2090 - 2160 range in the coming days. Trend down ; RSI 43.92 ; stochastic turned up from oversold ; support 2100 / 2080 / 2050 / 2000 ; resistance 2165 / 2205 / 2250 / 2280.
Other news...
The International Monetary Fund left its projection for global growth in 2015 unchanged from three months ago at 3.5%, according to its World Economic Outlook released Tuesday. Underneath the stable forecast, however, the IMF depicts a global economy being reshaped by swings in currency markets and the drop in oil prices.
U.S. stocks closed mixed as investors digested the first of the major earnings reports and moderate economic data. JPMorgan reported earnings and revenue beat expectations and share price gain >2% to trade above 15-year highs. Energy sectors higher after crude oil gained nearly 3%.
€ European shares were lower Tuesday, amid investor caution over a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting this week and the official start of the first-quarter earnings season. Alcatel-Lucent SA jumped over 11% after Nokia said it is in advanced talks to buy the company.
The yield on the 10-year German bond fell to an all-time low of 0.134% after Moody's Investors Service warned that the ECB could run out of eligible bonds to buy from some governments around the end of the year.
Today, investors await China's first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Reuters poll said " China's GDP could hit a multi-year low of 7%, increasing pressure on Beijing provide stimulus. Scheduled for release alongside the GDP data are figures for factory output, fixed asset investment and retail sales for March.
China Mar new yuan loans rose 1.180 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 1.040 trillion yuan.
Hang Seng index is down 1.6%, seemingly on the back of profit-taking, following a blistering run-up of nearly 13% over the past 8 sessions.
The dollar index is slightly lower as USD/JPY fell -0.37% to a 1-week low after a consultant to Japanese Prime Minister Abe said that an exchange rate of 105 yen per dollar would be "appropriate," which reduces expectations for additional easing from the BOJ.
Crude oil futures rose on signs of falling U.S. oil production, weakness in the dollar and tensions in the Middle East, particularly Yemen. Moreover, technical buying added support. U.S. crude settled $1.38, or 2.7%, higher at $53.29, surging above its 100-day moving average of $52.96.
Gold falls on firmer dollar as U.S. rate hike bets intact. Citigroup said it has cut its 2015 average gold price estimate to $1,190 from $1,220, citing "fundamental tightness being outweighed by continued U.S. dollar strength and macro investment headwinds".
FCPO closed higher (RM2,148) after Indonesia Finance Minister will sign a regulation for a USD50 per tonne levy on CPO exports. This may curb Indonesia exports and draw more demand to Malaysia. However, rumors about unchanged 1-15 April exports, increasing production in the coming month and record high South American soybean crop negative to market sentiment.
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