Friday, November 28, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 28 November 2014

FKLI will open near yesterday's close, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close you position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, market eroded yesterday on steady selling throughout the session. Selling was prompted by weakness in crude mineral oil, which lost more than USD1.00 in Asian trade, and firmer ringgit. Negative sentiment towards estimates of lower November exports and higher stocks against a month ago undermined support. Cash market was also quiet. Prices were 4 to 23 lower in the morning and eroded to 41 lower in the afternoon.

Forecast of continued weakness in crude mineral oil raised concerns over demand from the biodiesel and fuel sector. This is negative especially with increased global vegetable oils production in the coming months. Traders will be following comments from market analysts at the current Indonesia conference for incentives. However, expect them to maintain their projections made at the POTS Kuala Lumpur conference just a month ago.

Technical view - prices continuing within the sideway trading range of 2180 - 2300.  Trend sideways ; RSI 46.99 ; support 2187 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2286 / 2345 / 2400.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 27 November 2014

FKLI will likely open near yesterday's close, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market closed higher yesterday on good support late in the session. Buying was tied to positive sentiment and expectations that market analysts at a conference in Indonesia will maintain their earlier positive outlook. Market was erratic early with firmer CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures supporting. But a weaker close in China Dalian futures prompted some selling in the early afternoon. Lower crude mineral oil also undermined support. Prices were 10 higher to 6 lower in the morning and 11 lower to 26 higher in the afternoon.

Market will be looking towards the Indonesian conference, starting tomorrow, for some incentives. It is likely that the market analysts will maintain their forecast for higher prices in the coming months although current weakness in crude mineral oil may be of some concern. Generally, sentiment is expected to follow the seasonal strength of lower production through February. However, the prospect of higher end November stocks may bring some cautiousness.

Technical view - prices are moving back into the sideway trading range. An effective break above 2300 or below 2180 may see the next major move.  Trend sideways ; RSI 53.13 ; support 2187 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2286 / 2345 / 2400.

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 26 November 2014

FKLI will likely open very near to yesterday's close, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Short 1-3 point above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, erratic market yesterday with prices closing higher after falling near to one month low early. There was good support early following strong gains in CBT soyoil and slightly better than expected 1- 25 November exports. Reports of higher 1-20 November production by MPOA prompted strong selling. Lower China Dalian olein futures and technical sell stops below 2200 magnified losses. Gradual recovery came in the afternoon as sentiment towards seasonal strength took over. Prices were 15 higher to 18 lower in the morning and 18 lower to 18 higher in the afternoon.

The higher MPOA production report was a surprise. Full November month production may now be only slightly lower vs October considering some floodings currently affecting the east coast states. This will result in higher end November stocks, contrary to earlier expectations. However, expect seasonal strength to dominate sentiment in the coming months as production declines amid the prospect of floodings due to current rainy weather.

Technical view - the good recovery from below 2200 is slightly positive.  Trend sideways ; RSI 49.52 ; support 2187 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2286 / 2345 / 2400.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 25 November 2014

FKLI will likely open lower today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market eroded to one week low today after a higher opening found strong sellers. Selling was tied to ideas of slow demand. Estimates are for lower 1-25 November exports to be reported by cargo surveyors tomorrow. Firmer ringgit also undermined sentiment early. Steadiness in CBT soyoil, China Dalian futures and crude mineral oil gave little effect. Prices were 4 higher to 23 lower in the morning and extended losses to 35 lower in the afternoon.

In the absence of fresh factors, some focus is turning towards export numbers. There are reports of slow demand with quiet cash market. However, fundamentals are generally more positive with lower production expected through February. Supplies of other vegetable oils i.e. sun oil, canola oil etc are also forecast to be lower in coming months. Meanwhile, some attention will be drawn towards the conference in Indonesia this week.

Technical view - prices testing 2200 support which if broken will be negative.  Trend sideways ; RSI 47.56 ; support 2193 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2286 / 2345 / 2400.

Update at 11.31 am : ITS Malaysia palm oil export for November 1-25 fell 2.9%.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 24 November 2014

FKLI will open slightly higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the trading day.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 20 November 2014

FKLI will likely open near yesterday's close, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 19 November 2014

FKLI will open higher today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market rose yesterday on better positive sentiment. Strong buying came in the afternoon as fresh sellers were lacking and China Dalian futures recovered most of its early losses. Higher crude mineral oil and weaker ringgit, which eased about 0.25 pct vs USD, were also supportive. Prices were 4 higher to 5 lower in the morning and rose gradually to 24 higher in the afternoon.

In the absence of fresh factors, expectation of seasonal strength from lower production in the coming months is encouraging support. Steadiness in CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures added to the positive sentiment. However, the lower exports and relatively weak crude mineral oil are of concern and likely to check gains.

Technical view - prices continue to hold within the 2200 - 2350 trading range. Trend sideways ; RSI 54.92 ; support 2193 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2257 / 2286 / 2345 / 2400.

Friday, November 14, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 14 November 2014

FKLI will likely open a little lower, for the first trade today one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 13 November 2014

FKLI will likely open a little higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, better selling towards close settled market lower yesterday. Selling was prompted by lack of fresh bullish factors and talks of slower export demand. Stronger ringgit, which gained about 0.35 pctvs USD, added weight. Market rose to one week high early following strength in CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures. Prices were 21 to 5 higher in the morning and eased gradually to 8 lower in the afternoon.

There is no change in fundamentals. Bulls will continue to look towards seasonal drop in production and likelihood of rain and floods in coming months. Bears are pointing towards the bumper US soybean crop and prospect of record high South American production as well. Ringgit is unlikely to be a major factor with most expectations for 3.30 to 3.35 range vs USD. Export demand is likely to be the primary factor.

Technical view - prices moved into wide trading range of 2200 - 2350 with a positive bias.  Trend up ; RSI 56.68 ; support 2193 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2300 / 2345 / 2400.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 12 November 2014

FKLI will likely open very near to yesterday's close.  For the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, market closed higher again yesterday on strong support late in the session. Buying was tied to positive sentiment towards seasonal strength in the coming months. Weak ringgit, which lost about 0.5 pct vs USD today, lent support. Sentiment was also underpinned by steadiness in CBTsoyoil and China Dalian futures. Market traded on either sides of the previous day's close earlierdue to absence of fresh factors. Prices were 12 higher to 13 lower in choppy morning trade and rose from 7 lower to 33 higher in the afternoon.

It is mainly bullish sentiment towards lower production and possible flooding in the coming months. Prospects of lower global sun oil and rapeseed oil supplies are also supportive. However, the bumper US soyabean crop and weakness in crude mineral oil may keep support cautious. Improved weather for the South American soyabean crop is also negative. In anycase, think export demand will be the main factor in the coming weeks.

Technical view - the break above 2250 is positive. Prices are continuing the broad range major up trend.  Trend up ; RSI 57.64 ; stochastic turned up from oversold ; support 2193 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2300 / 2345 / 2400.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 11 November 2014

FKLI will likely open a little higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, mrket closed sharply higher yesterday after trading within the previous day's range. Buying was encouraged by the higher than expected 1-10 November exports and prospects of lower production through February. Higher close in China Dalian futures, e-CBT soyoil and crude mineral oil also underpinned sentiment. Technical correction from the oversold stochastic added support. Gains were however, checked by firmer ringgit which rose about 0.5 pct vs USD. Prices were 1 to 18 higher in the morning and 5 to 45 higher in the afternoon.

MPOB data for October was neutral to slightly negative but was discounted. More emphasis is turning towards the prospect of seasonal declining production and stocks in the coming months. This was enhanced by the relatively good 1-10 November exports. Likelihood of heavy rain and floodings will also be supportive. Market outlook is more positive for the coming months.

Technical view - prices correcting from the oversold stochastic. Ability of prices to hold above 2200 will be positive.  Trend s/t down ; RSI 54.43 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2193 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2250 / 2300 / 2345 / 2400.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 10 November 2014

FKLI will likely open near Friday's closing, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, Strong selling on Friday afternoon closed market lower for the 4th consecutive day. Selling was led by protection against the MPOB October data on Monday and estimates of lower 1-10 November exports. Long liquidation and technical considerations added weight. Similar to yesterday, market was supported in the morning following higher China Dalian futures and weaker ringgit, which lost about 0.3 pct vs USD. Prices were 30 to 13 higher in the morning and eroded to 29 lower in the afternoon.

Market is correcting from the very strong run up last week, which now seems to be not backed by fundamentals. The MPOB is expected to report higher end October stocks on Monday. Of more importance will be exports, where most estimates are lower against a month ago. However, lower production and the likelihood of floods in the coming months are supportive.

Technical view - the break below 2200 is negative. Prices may drop to 2100.  Trend s/t down ; RSI 48.84 ; parabolic triggered a "sell" signal below 2209 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2193 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2250 / 2300 / 2345 / 2400.

Friday, November 7, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 7 November 2014

FKLI will likely open a little higher today, for the first trade one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 6 November 2014

FKLI will likely open higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the trading day.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 5 November 2014

FKLI will likely open higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, market closed lower yesterday, snapping 5 consecutive days of gains. Selling was prompted by erosion in CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures. Weakness in crude mineral oil also undermined sentiment. Ideas that market was due for correction from the overbought situation added pressure. Losses were held by weaker ringgit, which lost about 0.3 pct vs USD today. Prices were 28 to 9 lower in the morning and extended losses to 43 lower in the afternoon.

There are no changes in fundamentals. Market likely correcting from the technically overbought situation with impetus provided by erosion in CBT soyoil and weakness in crude mineral oil. However, forecast for floods towards end November and historical strength in the 1st quarter are likely to keep market supported and limit the downside.

Technical view - prices correcting from the overbought RSI and stochastic. No change in positive indicators. Trend up ; RSI 67.55 ; stochastic overbought ; support 2265 / 2220 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2345 / 2400 / 2450 / 2511.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 4 November 2014

FKLI has opened higher today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FPO, strong run up continued for the 5th consecutive day. Market rose to fill the price gap left on 14 July. Support followed good gains in CBT soyoil and higher China Dalian futures. Weak ringgit, which lost about 0.9 pct vs USD today, also encouraged buying. Short covering magnified gains.

Prices were 3 to 23 higher in the morning and extended gains to 39 higher in the afternoon. The continued strength in CBT soyoil, inspite of a bumper US soyabean crop now in harvest, is adding to the bullish sentiment. Weather concerns in South America is also supportive. An outside factor is the ringgit, which if weaken further, will be positive on prices. Together with seasonally lower production in the coming months, there are better incentives for support.

Technical view - prices continuing the strong uptrend to 2400. The RSI and stochastic are overbought and are due for some downward corrections. trend up ; RSI 73.75 ( overbought ) ; stochastic overbought ; support 2310 / 2265 / 2220 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2345 / 2400 / 2450 / 2511.

Monday, November 3, 2014

Trading Tips for the Day - 3 November 2014

FKLI will open higher today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the trading day.

For FCPO, market continued its uptrend to close at its highest level since 18 July. Buying was encouraged by
confirmation of good pick up in the 1-31 October exports and forecast of lower end December stocks by MPOB. Higher close in China Dalian futures was also supportive. Market was slightly lower early on the overbought situation which found good support. Prices were 6 lower to 17 higher in the morning and rose to 31 higher in the afternoon.

The good export numbers are giving better incentives for buying. With lower than expected stocks in October, seasonal strength from declining production in the coming months will impose on market. An outside bullish factor is the prospect of flooding from rainy weather. However, weakness in crude mineral oil, uncertain global economy and big supplies of soyabean may cap the upside.

Technical view - the break above 2300 may carry prices to 2400. Indicators remain positive. The overbought situation in both RSI and stochastic may see some correction which is a buy opportunity.  Market continued its uptrend to close at its highest level since 18 July.  Trend up ; RSI 71.11 ( overbought ) ; stochastic overbought ; support 2265 / 2220 / 2165 / 2100 ; resistance 2310 / 2345 / 2400.