Trading Tips for the Day - 29 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a little lower, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, market closed slightly higher yesterday in an erratic and choppy session. September was, however, lower on long liquidation. Buying was encouraged by steadiness in China Dalian futures and e-CBT soyoil. Prospect of increased imports by China after reports that banks have resumed credit facilities was also supportive. However, negative fundamentals continued to prompt intermittent selling throughout the session. Prices were 11 lower to 12 higher in the morning and 25 higher to 11 lower in the afternoon.

Tussle between weak fundamentals and low prices is continuing. It may be difficult for the market to rise in view of the coming high production months through October and good weather for the US soyabean crop. However, the sharp fall from May could have accounted for these negative factors with the current low prices. Meanwhile, the report on China's Shangdong Changhua's resumption of palm oil imports is positive.

Technical view - prices moved into the 2050 - 1950 trading range. Indicators remain negative.  Trend down ; RSI 19.37 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 1957 ; support 1955 / 1900 / 1850 ; resistance 2050 / 2100 / 2163.

Trading Tips for the Day - 28 August 2014

FKLI will likely open very near yesterday's close, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit, put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, market failed to hold strong early gains and eroded to close sharply lower yesterday. Better sellers came in the afternoon, as bearish sentiment dominated again. Selling followed ideas that bearish vegetable oils fundamentals are not yet fully factored in the market. Stronger ringgit which gained more than 0.4 pct vs USD added weight. Market rose early following higher CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures. Prices were 40 to 8 higher in the morning and eroded to 39 lower in the afternoon.

Market remained under bearish pressure with no change in the weak fundamentals. Coming high production months are of concern. Comments by market analyst Mr Dorab Mistry, who reportedly said that prices tend to gravitate towards cost of production during bear markets, probably added some selling pressure today. However, prices are relatively low at present and big sideway trading range the past few days is indicative of some cautiousness.

Technical view - the weak close kept indicators negative. However, prices have moved into a 2050 -1950 trading range.  Trend down ; RSI 18.53 ( oversold ) ; parabolic triggered a "buy" signal at 2045 ; support 1955 / 1900 / 1850 ; resistance 2050 / 2100 / 2163.

Trading Tips for the Day - 27 August 2014

FKLI will open a little higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, market closed lower yesterday after an erratic and choppy session. Prices traded in wide range within Monday's levels. Selling was prompted by lack of supporting factors with only small gains in China Dalian futures and CBT soyoil overnight. Concerns over slow exports and prospects of increasing production and stocks continued to undermine sentiment. Prices were 2 to 25 lower in the morning and 56 to 14 lower in the afternoon.

Big swings these last 2 days pointed to some cautiousness at current price levels. There are no changes to the bearish fundamentals with higher production expected through October while exports are not seen to be picking up yet. The prospect of a bumper US soyabean crop also added pressure. However, current prices are deemed to be relatively low, which may result in consumers looking towards stock replenishing. Increased use for fuel, with higher biodiesel production in Argentina and Brazil using soyoil, will also lend support.

Technical view - prices turned sideways, holding within the previous day's range. Indicators remain negative. The oversold situation in the RSI may keep prices sideways in the coming days. Trend down ; RSI 20.96 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2045 ; support 1955 / 1900 / 1850 ; resistance 2050 / 2100 / 2163.

Trading Tips for the Day - 26 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a little higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the trading day.

For FCPO, market rebounded after eroding to new low since March 2009 to close sharply higher yesterday. Buying was led by short covering on ideas that market is due for correction from oversold situation. Expectation of improving demand in coming months added support. Market eroded in the morning following poor 1-25 August exports and weakness in CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures. Prices were 3 higher to 45 lower in the morning and rose from 19 lower to 46 higher in the afternoon.

Looks more like technical play today. Fundamentals are unchanged and remain negative. The low August exports will point to sharp increase in stocks as production is expected to rise about 15 pct. Bumper US soybean crop and better global oilseeds supply also weigh on sentiment. There is also concern about China's imports in view of financing difficulties. However, prices are relatively low and will attract better demand and bottom picking.

Technical view - it was an outside day today which may see further rebound due to grossly oversold situation. However, indicators remain negative.  Trend down ; RSI 22.32 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2057 ; stochastic turned up from oversold ; support 1990 / 1955 / 1900 ; resistance 2050 / 2100 / 2163.

Trading Tips for the Day - 25 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a little higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the trading day. 

For FCPO, market broke 2000 on Friday, closing at its lowest level since July 2009. Selling was tied to continuing bearish sentiment and absence of supporting factors. Talks of defaults as the market fell sharply since July added pressure. Long liquidation magnified losses. Steady China Dalian olein and soyoil futures had little effect except providing a better opening. Prices were 5 higher to 10 lower in the morning and eroded to 50 lower in the afternoon.

Lack of weekend short covering inspite of big drop this week points to bears dominating. Fundamental outlook remains negative with possibility of default adding to demand concerns. Exports for 1-25 August and full month August are likely to be below July levels. However, current prices should be attractive to induce better demand especially from India which is facing a weak monsoon. Technical view - indicators continue negative. The very sharp drop this last 2 weeks keep market grossly oversold and some upward correction is overdue. Trend down ; RSI 13.32 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2083 ; stochastic oversold ; support 1990 / 1950 / 1900 ; resistance 2050 / 2100 / 2163.

Trading Tips for the Day - 22 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a little higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, similar pattern of the past few days continued yesterday. There was early support following higher CBT soyoil, China Dalian futures, and ideas that a rebound was overdue. Better sellers surfaced in the afternoon, pressuring market to new lows since 8 October 2009. Quiet cash market and ideas of increasing supplies in the coming months continued to undermine sentiment. Prices were 20 higher to 3 lower in the morning and eroded to 16 lower in the afternoon.

It is difficult to find factors for support at the moment. Fundamentals are weak with high production months in August - October and continuing forecast for bumper US soyabean crop amid very good weather. Even crude mineral oil prices eroded in recent days on better supplies. However, current prices are relatively low and the market will be sensitive to any positive development.

Technical view - prices continuing the down trend towards 2000. Both RSI and stochastic remain grossly oversold and some upward correction is due.  Trend down ; RSI 15.47 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2106 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2033 / 2000 / 1950 ; resistance 2100 / 2163 / 2200 / 2250.

Trading Tips for the Day - 21 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a little higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the trading day.

For FCPO, weakness continued with better sellers again in yesterday's afternoon, closing market at new lows. Selling followed continuing erosion in CBT soyoil ( with e-CBT trading lower ) and easier China Dalian futures. Quiet cash market also undermined support. Cargo surveyors' export numbers for 1-20 August were on the low sides of guesstimates and added pressure. Weaker ringgit which lost about 0.3 pct vs USD had no effect. Prices were 7 higher to 15 lower in the morning and eroded to 23 lower in the afternoon.

There was little incentive for buying in spite of the relatively low current price. Fundamentals remain bearish with higher seasonal production in Aug - Oct but no sign of strong pick-up in demand. Absence of weather concern in the US soybean crop is also negative. Market may have to look towards increase demand for fuel for any silver lining.

Technical view - market is grossly oversold but indicators remain negative. Shorts may hold positions. Trend down ; RSI 16.07 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2124 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2045 / 2000 / 1950 ; resistance 2100 / 2163 / 2200 / 2250.

Trading Tips for the Day - 20 August 2014

FKLI will likely open higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, strong selling in the afternoon yesterday closed market at fresh new low since 9 October 2009. Selling was prompted by lack of supporting factors and concerns over increasing production and stocks in the coming months. Prospect of very good weather in the US continuing for the current soyabean crop also undermined sentiment. Late rumours of better pick up in exports the last 5 days had little effect. Prices were 10 higher to 4 lower in the morning and eroded to 22 lower in the afternoon.

Absence of positive development continued to keep bears comfortable and in control. Nearby factors point to weak trend continuing. Production and stocks will likely increase in the coming months. Bumper US soyabean crop seems assured with good weather and improved crop ratings by USDA in its weekly crop progress report. However, current prices are attractive to induce greater demand, including for fuel and biodiesel.

Technical view - weak trend continued. The increasing open positions pointed to the shorts maintaining. Prices may drop to 2000. The RSI and stochastic remain oversold and some upward correction is due. Trend down ; RSI 17.25 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2144 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2050 / 2000 / 1950 ; resistance 2100 / 2163 / 2200 / 2250 ; open interest increasing.

Trading Tips for the Day - 19 August 2014

FKLI will likely open higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the trading day.

For FCPO, market closed slightly lower yesterday after trading on either sides of the previous day's close. There was light support early following the technically oversold situation and ideas that prices were relatively low. Weakness in CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures capped gains while encouraging selling on rallies. Prices were 7 higher to 8 lower in the morning and traded mostly around 5 lower in the afternoon.

There are no changes in the bearish fundamentals. Palm oil production will be higher in the coming months through October and the stocks will increase. Prospect of El Nino weather has diminished. US soyabean crop will be a record high with current very good weather. Generally, global oilseeds supplies are exceeding demand. However, prices are now relatively low and attractive for increasing use in fuels and biodiesel, which may limit the downside.

Technical view - indicators continue negative. Prices may erode to 2000. There may be some upward correction from the oversold situation in both RSI and stochastic. Trend down ; RSI 18.59 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2163 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2085 / 2050 / 2000 ; resistance 2163 / 2200 / 2250 ; open interest increasing.

Trading Tips for the Day - 18 August 2014

FKLI will likely a little down, for the first trade today, one csn attempt ro short 1-3 points above the opening price. Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point. Close your position by the end of the day.

Trading Tips for the Day - 15 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a few points higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, harply lower CBT soyoil pressured the market to its lowest level since 15 October 2009. China Dalian also reacted in tandem, with RBD olein futures losing more than 2 pct. Adding weight was a stronger ringgit which rose more than 0.4 pct vs USD yesterday. Technical selling and long liquidation magnified losses. Prices gapped 26 to 43 lower in the morning and extended losses to 61 lower before closing off the lows.

Bears continued to flex their muscles following weakness in related outside factors. The very good weather is pressuring CBT soyoil, with bumper soyabean crop expected and China Dalian futures following. Weak crude mineral oil price, firmer ringgit and better global oilseeds supplies added to the negative outlook. Unless export demand picks up soon, weak trend may continue with high production months in August - October.

Technical view - bearish trend continues. Indicators remain negative. Market is oversold. Upward correction is a sell opportunity. An effective break below 2100 will carry prices to 2000.  Trend down ; RSI 21.92 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2207 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2115 / 2100 / 2050 ; resistance 2163 / 2200 / 2250 / 2300 ; open interest increasing.

Trading Tips for the Day - 14 August 2014

FKLI will open a few points higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, market failed to hold early gains and closed lower yesterday. Selling was led by bearish sentiment in the absence of fresh factors. Weakness in CBT soyoil and soyabean, amid bearish fundamentals, continued to add weight. There was light support early from the technically oversold situation and reports of increased July imports by India. Prices were 14 higher to 7 lower in the morning and eroded to 24 lower in the afternoon.

The continuing good weather in USA and the USDA estimate of record high soyabean crop as well as an increase in world ending stocks are negative. Together with increasing palm oil production in the coming months, they are all likely to keep sentiment bearish in the coming week. However, there are prospects that consumers may start to replenish stocks as prices are relatively low. Increasing use for biodiesel may also lend support.

Technical view - no change in negative indicators. Prices may move to the 2013 low of 2137. Any correction from the oversold situation is a sell opportunity.  Trend down ; RSI 26.01 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2230 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2162 / 2135 / 2100 / 2050 ; resistance 2200 / 2250 / 2300 / 2345 ; open interest increasing.

Trading Tips for the Day - 13 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a little lower, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price, try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Market closed higher yesterday after trading on either sides of the previous day's close. Prices dropped to fresh new lows since 30 July 2013 early. Buying was led by bottom picking on ideas that the downside may be limited. Technical support from the oversold situation and short covering added gains. Market was lower early in the morning and afternoon following weakness in CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures. Prices were 15 lower to 19 higher in the morning and 4 lower to 13 higher in the afternoon.

There was no fresh factor. CBT soyoil and China Dalian probably followed our sharp erosion yesterday. Support today looked mainly technical and also profit taking after big drop the past 2 days. The fundamental outlook remains negative with slow demand and increasing production. Better global oilseeds supplies, amid near ideal weather for the current US soyabean crop, added to the gloom.

Technical view - prices correcting from the oversold situation indicated in both RSI and stochastic. No change in negative indicators. Trend down ; RSI 27.22 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2247 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2135 / 2100 / 2050 ; resistance 2250 / 2300 / 2345 / 2400 ; open interest increasing.

Trading Tips for the Day - 12 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a little higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price, try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the trading day.

For FCPO, bears came out in numbers yesterday, pressuring market to new lows since 30 July 2013. The 1-10 August exports were the lowest in 4 months, the MPOB July data showed higher production and stocks against earlier expectations, Southern POMA reported high 1-10 August production, CBT soyoil and China Dalian eased, and the ringgit gained about 0.3 pct vs USD. Technical selling and long liquidation added losses. Prices were 7 higher to 22 lower in the morning and eroded to 59 lower in the afternoon.

The big concern was the low export numbers by the cargo surveyors which raised ideas of slow demand. With production expected to continue increasing through October, stocks may build up significantly. Absence of weather problems in the US and India are also negative. However, there are ideas that the market may be near the bottom as prices are relatively low. The prospect of increasing use for biodiesel may help to limit the downside.

Technical view - the easy break down from the 2200 support kept indicators negative. Prices may test the 2013 low of 2137.  Trend down ; RSI 24.25 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2268 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2135 / 2100 / 2050 ; resistance 2250 / 2300 / 2345 / 2400.

Trading Tips for the Day - 11 August 2014

FKLI will likely open higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price, try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, on Friday market closed at 1-year low today as bearish sentiment dominated. Selling was prompted by a quiet cash market and ideas of slow demand. Expectations of higher production and stocks through October undermined support. Market was higher early on uncertainties following sharp losses in equity markets as the US President Barack Obama, authorized limited airstrikes in Iraq. Prices were 14 higher to 3 lower in the morning and eroded to 23 lower in the afternoon.

MPOB data for July on Monday may be slightly supportive as production and stocks are likely to be lower than earlier expectations. However, the likelihood of slower 1-10 August exports vs a month ago may have more effect on sentiment. Most factors look negative at present. US weather remains near ideal, Indian monsoon is better and chances of El Nino are diminishing. Higher production in the coming months is likely to keep market under pressure.

Technical view - prices continuing their down trend towards 2200. Indicators remain negative. Trend down ; RSI 30.78 ; parabolic SAR at 2268 ; stochastic slightly oversold ; support 2200 / 2135 / 2100 ; resistance 2300 / 2345 / 2400.

Latest update : ITS- Malaysia's August 1-10 palm oil exports drop 22.2%

Trading Tips for the Day - 8 August 2014

FKLI will likely open lower, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Market closed mixed yesterday with forwards higher. Nearbys eased on long liquidation. Buying was encouraged by higher CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures. Steady cash market and weaker ringgit, which lost about 0.3 pct vs USD were also supportive. Gains were however capped by lack of bullish factors. Prices were 12 to 0 higher in the morning and extended gains to 16 higher in the afternoon before closing around mid range.

There were no new factors. Ideas that downside may be limited with current relatively low prices probably induced support. Stocks are relatively low and cash sellers seem reserved at present levels. However, fundamentals have negative outlook with seasonal high production in Aug - Oct and bumper US soybean crop expected.

Technical view - indicators remain negative with prices continuing within the downtrend channel.

Trend down ; RSI 33.97 ; parabolic SAR at 2272 ; support 2240 / 2200 / 2135 / 2100 ; resistance 2300 / 2345 / 2400.

Trading Tips for the Day - 7 August 2014

FKLI will most likely open flat, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 point below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, market extended losses to a 1-year low today after failing to hold early gains. Selling was prompted by expectations of higher production and stocks in the coming months and absence of bullish factors. Weakness in CBT soyoil added pressure. Some early support from the prospect of lower end July stocks, to be reported by MPOB on 11 August, as indicated by the Reuters poll did not follow through. Prices were 8 higher to 13 lower in the morning and 15 lower to unchanged in the afternoon.

Difficult to shake the bearish sentiment at present unless weather turns adverse. With seasonally high production coming up in August - October, there is little incentive for buying. The weakness in CBT soyoil, in light of the very good weather, also undermined sentiment. However, there may be some support in the short term on the likelihood of MPOB reporting lower than expected production and stocks in July.

Technical view - the break out of consolidation to new lows is negative. Prices may move to 2200. Trend down ; RSI 31.78 ; parabolic SAR at 2280 ; support 2200 / 2135 / 2100 ; resistance 2300 / 2345 / 2400.

Trading Tips for the Day - 6 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a few points lower, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the trading day.

For FCPO, market closed lower yesterday after trading on either sides of the previous day's close. Selling was tied to bearish sentiment on ideas that current fundamentals are mostly negative. Firmer ringgit, which gained more than 0.4 pct vs USD, also undermined sentiment. There was support early following strong gains in CBT soyoil. Prices were 13 higher to 10 lower in the morning and 19 to 1 lower in the afternoon.

Fundamentals are generally negative. With no major problems reported on the global weather, oilseeds supplies are expected to be abundant this season. USDA kept its soyabean crop ratings of good / excellent at 71 pct vs a week ago, and a record harvest of 3.8 billion bushels. Palm oil production is expected to maintain its seasonal peak in August - October in the absence of El Nino weather. Unless export demand picks up, weak trend may continue.

Technical view - prices continue to hold within the 2250 - 2300 sideway range. Breakouts from these levels may see the next major move.  Trend sideways ; RSI 32.79 ; parabolic SAR at 2280 ; support 2245 / 2200 / 2135 ; resistance 2300 / 2345 / 2400 ; open interest increasing.

Trading Tips for the Day - 5 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a few points higher, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit, put a stop 5 points away from your entry point and close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, weakness in CBT soyoil pressured market lower yesterday. Adding weight was a firmer ringgit which gained about 0.3 pct vs USD. Quiet cash market and ideas of slow demand, with SGS also reporting lower 1-31 July exports vs June, also undermined sentiment. Prices were 18 to 29 lower in the morning and 31 to 14 lower in the afternoon.

Most factors are negative at present. Unless demand improves, stocks will build up with the seasonal peak production in August - October. Chances of El Nino weather are also diminishing and in anycase, is only expected to be moderate if it occurs. CBT soyoil outlook is also negative with record high soyabean crop expected in light of near ideal weather. However, current stocks are not burdensome and prices are deemed to be relatively low. These may limit the downside.

Technical view - prices continue to trade sideways in a 2250 - 2300 range. Breakouts from these levels may see the next major move.  Trend sideways ; RSI 34.68 ; parabolic SAR at 2287 ; support 2245 / 2200 / 2135 ; resistance 2300 / 2345 / 2400.

Trading Tips for the Day - 4 August 2014

FKLI will likely open a little lower, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 point away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

For FCPO, market rose on Friday on good support throughout the session. Buying was encouraged by continued weakness in the ringgit, which lost about 0.4 pct vs USD. Some bargain buying on ideas that prices were relatively low added support. Weekend short covering and technical correction from the oversold situation in the RSI magnified gains. Prices rose 4 to 25 higher in the morning and firmed to 30 higher in the afternoon.

Fundamentals are little changed. July production may turn out to be lower than the expected 10 pct increase which may result in further drop in stocks. This will keep stocks manageable as production enters the August - October peak period. Meanwhile, weather forecast in the US and India are reportedly good and is negative. However, prices of palm oil and soyoil are relatively low currently and will be sensitive to any positive development.

Technical view - the strong showing today puts prices in a 2250 - 2300 trading range. Breakouts from these levels may see the next major move.  Trend down ; RSI 37.30 ; parabolic SAR at 2287 ; support 2250 / 2200 / 2135 ; resistance 2300 / 2345 / 2400.

Trading Tips for the Day - 1 August 2014

FKLI will likely open lower as Dow Jones plunged more than 300 points.  For the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 2-4 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, better sellers in the afternoon closed market lower today.  Selling was tied to bearish sentiment continuing in the absence of bullish factors.  Lower than expected July exports undermined support together with weakness in CBT soyoil. There was support in the morning following higher China Dalian futures and weaker ringgit, which lost about 0.4 pct vs USD.  Prices were 14 to 2 higher in the morning and eroded to 19 lower in the afternoon before closing off the lows. Prompt August was higher on short covering.

The lower 1-31 July exports by ITS is likely to keep sentiment negative. With production forecast about 10 pct higher, stocks may not change much from a month ago. As production is entering the seasonally peak period in August - October and weather remains good in the US and India, negative sentiment may continue. However, prices and consumer stocks are relatively low which can bring strong reaction to any positive news.

Technical view - the erosion to new lows kept indicators negative. An effective break below 2250 will carry prices to 2200.

Technicals - trend down ; RSI 29.45 ( oversold ) ; parabolic SAR at 2289 ; support 2220 /
2200 / 2135 ; resistance 2300 / 2345 / 2400.