Friday, January 30, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 30 January 2015

FKLI will likely open higher today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, down trend continued yesterday with prices eroding to its lowest level since 19 December. Selling was prompted by sharp fall in CBT soyoil and crude mineral oil. China Dalian futures were also lower in sympathy. Quiet cash market also undermined sentiment. Technical sell stops below 2150 magnified losses. Weaker ringgit, which lost about 0.3 pct vs USD today, had little effect.

Prices were 28 to 42 lower in the morning and extended losses to 82 lower in the afternoon. There was little incentive for support with a quiet cash market giving ideas of slow demand. Weaknesses in CBT soyoil, following prospects of big South American soyabean crop, amid reports of improved weather, added to the negative outlook. Concerns over the global economy and low crude mineral oil price also undermined sentiment. However, the current low stocks and production may limit the downside.

Technical view - the break to new lows continues the down trend. Prices may test strong support at 2100.  Trend down ; RSI 34.54 ; stochastic turning up from oversold ; support 2100 / 2080 / 2000 / 1915 ; resistance 2216 / 2250 / 2300 / 2355 / 2395

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 29 January 2015

FKLI will likely open lower today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 28 January 2015

FKLI will likely open lower today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 27 January 2015

FKLI will likely open very near to yesterday's close, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, the down trend continued as poor 1-25 January exports dominated sentiment. Market eroded to its lowest level since 23 December. Lower CBT soyoil, China Dalian futures and crude mineral oil provided early selling pressure. Technical sell stops as prices broke below 2200 added weight and prompted long liquidation. Prices were 8 to 28 lower in the morning and eroded to 60 lower in the afternoon.

The very low cargo surveyors' 1-25 January exports pointed to poor demand. Together with weakness in related markets and lack of fresh supporting factors, there was better incentive for selling. However, we are in the low production months of January - February which will see market sensitive to any pick up in demand. Weak ringgit, which lost about 0.4 pct vs USD today, is also positive.

Technical view - prices broke below 2200, pointing to 2150. The oversold situation in the stochastic may see some upward correction. No change in the down trend.  Trend down ; RSI 35.73 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2150 / 2100 / 2080 / 2000 ; resistance 2250 / 2300 / 2355 / 2395 .

Monday, January 26, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 26 January 2015

FKLI will likely open slightly lower today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market closed lower for the 3rd consecutive day after late buying strength was met by stronger weekend liquidation. With the lower CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures, BMD was under pressure from the opening. However, early afternoon weakness was not sustained and market rebounded to make the day's high before coming off again at the close. Prices were 5-21 lower in the morning and 2-24 lower in the afternoon.

With new factors lacking, market continued to slide and correct from recent gains. This weakness is aided by slipping CBT soyabean / soyoil on stronger USD and forecasts of record soyabean crops. More attention may be focused on crude oil with the passing of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah. Nevertheless, improved palm oil demand will be of utmost importance if market is to check this down trend.

Technical view - prices remain on downtrend. However, it may be due for some pullbacks as short-term market is oversold as indicated by stochastic. Trend down ; RSI 42.59 ; stochastic oversold ; support 2200 / 2150 / 2100 ; resistance 2300 / 2355 / 2395 / 2435.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 22 January 2015

FKLI will likely open slightly lower, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market eroded to its lowest level since 5 January, closing weak. Strong selling came in the
afternoon, tied to ideas of slow demand. Ideas that the flood situation is improving and absence of covering in the cash market undermined sentiment. Lower CBT soyoil and continuing weakness in crude mineral oil added weight. Market was higher early on supply concerns. Prices were 18 higher to 15 lower in the morning and eroded to 50 lower in the afternoon.

With no reports of tightness in the cash market, there was stronger focus on the poor January exports to date. Weakness in other vegetable oils, ie. soyoil, rapeseed oil, etc. in light of the expected bumper South American soyabean production and weak crude mineral oil added to the negative outlook. However, lower production through February will keep the market sensitive to demand and limit the downside.

Technical view - the weak close keeps indicators negative. Good support seen around 2250.  Trend down ; RSI 48.73 ; stochastic oversold ; 5-day MA intersected 20-day MA from above ; support 2237 / 2200 / 2150 ; resistance 2355 / 2395 / 2435 / 2510.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 21 January 2015

FKLI will likely open very near to yesterday's close, for the first trade, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market closed higher yesterday after trading on either sides of the previous day's close. Poor 1-20 January exports, easier China Dalian futures and lower e-CBT soyoil prompted selling early. Erosion in crude mineral oil, which lost about USD1.40 in Asian trade also undermined sentiment. Weak ringgit, which lost more than 1 pct vs USD today, and worsening floods in Sarawak encouraged support most of the session. Prices were 12 lower to 11 higher in the morning and 37 to 8 higher in the afternoon.

Floods remain a major factor as they will amplify the seasonal drop in production in January - February. Together with the prospect of further weakness in the ringgit, after Malaysia revised the 2015 Budget and economic targets amid the low crude mineral oil price, they will encourage support. However, demand is a concern with very poor exports for 1-20 January. The approaching harvest of the South American soyabean crop will also add pressure.

Technical view - prices are moving into a sideway trading range of 2250 - 2400.  Trend sideways ; RSI 56.83 ; stochastic oversold ; macd intersects trigger line from above ; support 2298 / 2237 / 2200 / 2150 ; resistance 2355 / 2395 / 2435 / 2510.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 19 January 2015

FKLI will likely open higher today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market closed sharply lower Friday after another actively traded session. Selling was prompted by ideas of slack demand and lack of covering in the cash market. Weekend profit taking and technical selling, as prices broke below 2324, added weight. Firmer ringgit was also negative. There was light support early following higher CBT soyoil and steady China Dalian futures. Prices were 10 higher to 16 lower in the morning and eroded to 46 lower in the afternoon.

Inspite of the lower supply, due in part to the monsoon disrupting production, there was no report of squeeze in the cash market. This raised concerns of slow demand. Weakness in crude mineral oil will also see less use for fuel and biodiesel. However, production is expected to be lower through February, especially with possible disruption by the rains and floods in East Malaysia in the coming days. This will keep market sensitive to demand.

Technical view - prices broke below the up trend line, turning some indicators negative. Good support seen below 2300 to 2250.  trend turning sideways ; RSI 55.75 ; parabolic triggered a "sell" signal at 2328 ; support 2298 / 2237 / 2200 / 2150 ; resistance 2355 / 2395 / 2435 / 2510.

Friday, January 16, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 16 January 2015

FKLI will likely open lower today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market rose to a fresh new high since 11 July before giving back some gains towards close. Buying was tied to continuing concerns over lower production and supplies in the coming weeks following the recent bad floods. Higher CBT soyoil and crude mineral oil also underpinned sentiment. Gains were however, capped by strong gains in the ringgit, which rose about 0.8 pct vs USD, and low 1-15 January exports. Prices were 12 to 31 higher in the morning and extended gains to 50 higher before closing around mid range.

The picture is not clear on the extent of damage to supply by the recent very bad floods, which may be shifting to East Malaysia. Quality problems are also a concern. In anycase, nearby supplies are low and will be supportive. However, bullishness may be checked by the big supply of soyabean and weakness in crude mineral oil.

Technical view - the rise to a new high is positive. An effective break above 2400 may carry prices to 2510.  Trend up ; RSI 66.84 ; parabolic SAR at 2328 ; support 2310 / 2237 / 2200 / 2150 ; resistance 2400 / 2435 / 2510.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 15 January 2015

FKLI will likely open slightly lower, for the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market closed lower again yesterday after another heavy trading session within the previous day's range. Selling followed easier CBT soyoil and sharply lower China Dalian futures. Lower crude mineral oil also undermined sentiment. Rumours of low 1-15 January exports were discounted as within expectations. Losses were however, held by reports of rain and floods in East Malaysia which will deplete production further in January. Prices were 4 to 25 lower in the morning and 20 lower to 1 higher in the afternoon.

Sentiment is leaning more towards the forecast of lower production and stocks in January, especially with floods now shifting to East Malaysia. Weaker ringgit is also supportive. However, gains will be capped by weakness in CBT soyoil, in light of the record high US and South American soyabean crop, and crude mineral oil. Meanwhile, the 1-15 January exports to be reported by the cargo surveyors tomorrow were rumoured to be poor but is not expected to have much effect.

Technical view - prices continue to consolidate on the last few days' gains. Indicators remain positive.  Trend up ; RSI 63.99 ; parabolic SAR at 2324 ; support 2310 / 2237 / 2200 / 2150 ; resistance 2385 / 2435 / 2510.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 14 January 2015

FKLI will likely open lower today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market closed slightly lower yesterday after another actively traded session on either sides of the previous day's close. Big drop in CBT soyoil prompted selling early with sharply lower crude mineral oil adding weight. Forecast of lower production and weakening ringgit, which lost about 0.8 pct vs USD today, kept market supported. Prices were 39 to 20 lower in the morning and rose to 12 higher in the afternoon before easing towards close.

It remains a tussle between bullish palm oil fundamentals and bearish related outside markets. Palm oil production and stocks are likely to be lower through February on seasonal downturn and recent flood disruption. Ringgit may weaken further on economic concerns and stronger USD.

However, there is bumper global soyabean production following record US and South American crop. Crude mineral oil is likely to continue weak which will affect use for fuel and biodiesel.

Technical view - no change in positive indicators. Prices continue to consolidate on last few days' gains.  Trend up ; RSI 65.97 ; stochastic turned down from overbought ; parabolic SAR at 2313 ; support 2310 / 2237 / 2200 / 2150 ; resistance 2385 / 2435 / 2510.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 13 January 2015

FKLI will likely open lower today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 12 January 2015

FKLI will likely open lower today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market closed lower Friday early gains did not follow through. Selling was led by weekend profit taking. Technical correction from the overbought situation added weight. Rumours of low 1-10 January exports also undermined support. Market was higher early following strong gains in CBT soyoil. Prices were 14 higher to 23 lower in the morning and eased gradually to 28 lower in the afternoon.

Weather will be of major consideration in the coming week. Forecast is for heavy rainfall in some states but sentiment will be dampened if there is no flooding. Export numbers for 1-10 January are likely to be lower but will be secondary to the weather situation. MPOB data may be discounted unless the production and stocks vary substantially from the Bloomberg and Reuters' polls.

Technical view - prices correcting from the overbought RSI and stochastic. No change in positive indicators.  Trend up ; RSI 66.61 ; stochastic overbought ; support 2310 / 2237 / 2200 / 2150 ; resistance 2400 / 2435 / 2510.

Friday, January 9, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 9 January 2015

FKLI will open higher today with Dow Jones closing more than 300 points higher.  For the first trade today, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 8 January 2015

FKLI will likely open higher today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 7 January 2015

FKLI will likely open lower today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, sharply higher CBT soyoil and continued weakness in the ringgit, which lost about 0.6 pct vs USD today, carried prices to a 2-month high yesterday. Reuters poll of sharply lower end December stocks and production added support. Sentiment was also underpinned by forecast of heavy rain, which may cause floods, in East Malaysia and Johor in the coming days. Gains were capped by erosion in crude mineral oil to below USD49. Prices rose 8 to 46 higher in the morning but shed some gains in the afternoon.

Market is likely to hold steady in the coming days on expectations of a supportive MPOB December data on 12 January and continuing weakness in the ringgit. Any confirmation of heavy rains and floods will add to the existing bullish sentiment. However, the weak crude mineral oil, prospects of lower demand from India after the hike in import duty and record South American soyabean crop may cap the upside.

Technical view - prices testing resistance around 2300. An effective break above will carry prices to 2350. Indicators remain positive.  Trend up ; RSI 61.86 ; support 2237 / 2188 / 2150 / 2100 ; resistance 2310 / 2345 / 2400.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 6 January 2015

FKLI will likely open lower today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price..  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the trading day.

As for FCPO, market closed lower yesterday on strong selling late in the session. Selling was tied to ideas that the worst flood situation may be over. Lower China Dalian futures, weak crude mineral oil and easier CBT soyoil also undermined sentiment. Market was sideways to higher most of the session. Support followed forecast of heavy rains in East Malaysia and Johor in the coming days which will affect production. Weak ringgit, which lost about 0.5 pct vs USD, added support. Prices were 14 higher to 8 lower in the morning and 10 higher to 21 lower in the afternoon.

Buyers are looking at prospects of heavy rains and floods shifting to other states in the coming days. Weaker ringgit, in light of expectations for slower economic growth, is also positive. However, global vegetable oils fundamentals are negative. South America is on course to produce a record soyabean crop. Continuing weakness in crude mineral oil will see reduced demand for biodiesel and fuel.

Technical view - no change yet to the up trend. The trading range of 2200 - 2300 remains.  Trend up ; RSI 59.13 ; support 2237 / 2188 / 2150 / 2100 ; resistance 2308 / 2345 / 2400.

Monday, January 5, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 5 January 2015

FKLI will likely open a little higher today, for the first trade, one can attempt to Long 1-3 points below the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

Friday, January 2, 2015

Trading Tips for the Day - 2 January 2015

FKLI will open a little lower today, for the first trade one can attempt to Short 1-3 points above the opening price.  Try get 5-7 points profit and put a stop 5 points away from your entry point.  Close your position by the end of the day.

As for FCPO, market closed yesterday in a slow session. Selling was led by year end profit taking on strong gains the past week. Technical correction from the overbought stochastic added weight. Losses were held by light commercial support as cash sellers were lacking. Market was relatively steady in the morning following firmer CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures. Prices were 4 higher to 9 lower in the morning and eroded to 23 lower in the afternoon.

There are no new factors. Cargo surveyor, SGS' 1-31 December exports were within estimates. Although floods have been receding, it may take days before normal harvest and production can resume. In anycase, December production and stocks are expected to fall substantially from earlier estimates. Quality concerns may also see some reserved sellers in the cash market.

However, weakness in crude mineral oil remains a concern. Question marks are raised whether biodiesel mandates will be met.

Technical view - prices correcting from the overbought stochastic. Good support seen at 2250. Technicals - trend up ; RSI 60.93 ; stochastic turning down from overbought ; support 2250 / 2188 / 2150 / 2100 ; resistance 2308 / 2345 / 2400.