As for FCPO, market jumped to a 2-week high yesterday on some positive developments over the 4-day weekend holidays. CBT soyoil and China Dalian futures rose sharply higher with talks of strong China buying of soyoil. Adding support was a weaker ringgit which lost almost 1.5 pct vs USD. Firmer crude mineral oil also underpinned sentiment. Prices gapped 66 to 47 higher in the morning and held steady throughout the afternoon.
Market is showing sensitivity to demand especially with talks of low stocks in China and India. The current discount of palm oil to soyoil also makes it difficult to ignore any rise in CBT soyoil. However, there is no change in fundamentals. Production will be increasing in the coming months. Stocks will also increase in tandem unless exports improve substantially from the previous month.
Technical view - the big rise has checked the negative indicators which are now neutral. Prices may return to fill the big gap at 2108. Trend sideways ; RSI 50.44 ; parabolic triggered a "buy" signal at 2164 ; support 2110 / 2070 / 2050 / 2000 ; resistance 2180 / 2200 / 2250.
In other news...
🇺🇸 U.S. stocks shaved off about 1% as investors eyed higher bond yields and an unexpectedly wide March U.S. trade deficit, which sparked concerns about economic growth for the first quarter.
🇺🇸 U.S. trade deficit expanded by 43.1% to a seasonally adjusted $51.37 billion in March, the Commerce Department said. It was the largest monthly % increase since December 1996 and the largest deficit reading since October 2008.
The dollar fell against the Japanese yen and the euro after trade data indicated a larger drag on U.S. growth than initially estimated, raising the likelihood the Federal Reserve won’t raise borrowing costs soon.
U.S. oil prices surged above $60 a barrel as geopolitical events rattled the market. Prices gained on news that protesters in Libya had blocked a key port, interrupting more than 100,000 barrels a day of crude production.
€ European stocks were down on concern the Greek debt crisis may worsen after the Financial Times reported the IMF may cut off financial support to Greece unless European banks write off a "significant" amount of Greece's sovereign debt. On the positive side, the European Commission raised its Eurozone 2015 GDP forecast to 1.5% from a Feb estimate of 1.3%.
🇨🇳 China's Shanghai Index tumbled over 4.0% to a 2-week low on concern the government may introduce measures to cool market froth.
🇨🇳 Today, China will release its HSBC non-manufacturing purchasing managers index data for April.
Gold retained overnight gains on Tuesday but was stuck below $1,200 an ounce as investors waited on U.S. nonfarm payrolls later in the week for clues on when the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates.
Fed's quest for inflation giving gold bugs a new reason to cheers.
The Indonesian economy grew 4.71% for the first three months of 2015 from a year earlier, missing Reuters expectations for growth of 4.95%.
FCPO jumped to 2-week high on some positive development over the 4-day holidays. CBT Soyoil and China Dalian rose sharply with talks of strong China buying of Soyoil. Additional, weak Ringgit and strong crude mineral oil added price support. The big rise in price has checked the negative indicators which are now neutral.
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